Friday, July 25, 2003

Idiot Wind

You're an idiot, babe
It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe
- Idiot Wind, Bob Dylan

Man, that would have made a great blog title. As it is, I'm using it to display some of the sillier performances in yesterday's baseball games. All of the info comes from ESPN's game logs, which I've come to enjoy as much as my morning boxscores. For the second straight day, there is no winner of the Paul DePodesta Medal of Honor, but there's a lot to cover with BAP updates. So let's not waste any time, and get right to it.

Idiot Wind All-Stars

- David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox. With the Red Sox down 6 runs in the sixth inning, Ortiz gets thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double.

- Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks. With the game tied at 2 in the eighth and the bases loaded with two outs, Webb, who already has a double in the game, bunts. He becomes the third out.

- Brian Fuentes of the Colorado Rockies. It's a scoreless game in the eighth inning, and Fuentes is so unnerved by the 44-year-old man with no stolen bases on first base that he balks, and let's him walk to second. The runner is Rickey Henderson of course, but still, this has to be some kind of record.

- Jose Guillen of the Cincinnati Reds. This is my favorite. Jason LaRue fouls out to Pirate firstbaseman Randall Simon. Guillen is doubled off of second.

- Adrian Beltre of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Beltre has a game straight out of Little League. He goes hitless in three at bats, makes an error fielding, another one throwing, and gets hit by a pitch.

- Jose Reyes of the New York Mets. Trailing 2-0 in the fourth with no outs, Reyes gets thrown out trying to go from first to third on a single to center.

- Matt Walbeck of the Detroit Tigers. You knew there had to be a Tiger in here somewhere. The 33-year-old catcher gets so excited over the Tigers 4-run lead that he attempts to steal a base, something he has failed to do successfully this millenium. He is thrown out.

- Magglio Ordonez of the Chicago White Sox - Ordonez gets thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double, and a double into a triple.

BAP puts its undefeated record on the line.

The descriptions of BAP have been made in some detail over the last few days, but to go over it again briefly, it's an attempt to account for all of the extra bases gained in a ballgame that don't show up in OBP or SLG. So far, it has accurately predicted the winner of every game using that game's data, something OBP and SLG haven't done.

Here's an example of an innings, and how I score it:

-Top of the 4th inning
-A Nunez grounded out to first.
-J Suppan singled to left.
-J Kendall singled to left, J Suppan to second.
-J Wilson flied out to deep right, J Suppan to third.
-B Giles doubled to right center, J Suppan and J Kendall scored, B Giles tagged out at third attempting to advance on throw.

The Pirates get an extra base (EB, I guess) when Suppan moves to third on the flyball. On the next play, there's an EB when Kendall scores from first on a Giles' double. But when Giles is thrown out at third, he costs the team 2 EBs for losing the double. The total Pirates EB score for the inning is 0.

You can find the formula in yesterday's entry. In the meantime, let's get to the games. We only look at games that would be hard for any statistic to predict - one-run games, and those in which the loser has at least as many hits as the winner. The current standings:

BAP 7-0
OBP 4-2-1
SLG 4-3

San Francisco 3 Arizona 2

OBP - Ari .390. SF .226
SLG - Ari .405, SF .517
BAP - Ari .610, SF .613

OBP gets it wrong. This is the hardest game yet for BAP. San Francisco scores all three of it's runs on home runs.

Los Angeles 1 Colorado 0 (11 innings)

OBP - Col .179, LA .237
SLG - Col .111, LA .171
BAP - Col .275, LA .359

I thought this game would be tougher, but all three get it right.

Minnesota 6 Kansas City 2

OBP Min .303, KC .242
SLG Min .448, KC .387
BAP Min .500, KC .412

All three get it right.

Milwaukee 2 Houston 1

OBP - Mil .389, Hou .235
SLG - Mil .357, Hou .226
BAP - Mil .472, Hou .324

All three get it right.

Chicago 4 Toronto 3

OBP - Chi .377, Tor .250
SLG - Chi .333, Tor .286
BAP - Chi .453, Tor .408

This game gave me a heart attack. I thought BAP got it wrong, and I'm walking around my house cursing Magglio Ordonez after I rechecked the OBP and SLG stats, when I sit back down and check EBs. Sure enough, not only did I make a mistake counting, but I also missed a play after Ordonez's last blunder that added two bases.

Of course, this raises the question of me making mistakes on other games. I don't doubt it, being a research team of one publishing daily, but I will say that they would probably not occur with the OBP and SLG results. Those are far easier to calculate, because I don't have to accumulate the data myself. And with most of the BAP scores there has been such a huge difference between the two teams that a small mistake wouldn't change the result. But yeah, if anyone wants to volunteer to check my results, I'd love the help.

Oakland 3 Seattle 0

OBP - Oak .297, Sea .308
SLG - Oak .344, Sea .206
BAP - Oak .459, Sea .333

OBP gets it wrong.

Today's results:

BAP 6-0
SLG 6-0
OBP 4-2

Total results:

BAP 13-0
SLG 10-3
OBP 8-4-1

BAP remains undefeated! Prove it wrong if you can!

We publish on the weekend here, folks. So if you've got this far, make sure to come back tomorrow.

Comments? Counseling?


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