Monday, November 10, 2003

BAP On The Warpath

Slowly but surely, I'm catching up with the BAP numbers, the 2003 Playoffs being my own personal blog triathalon. I've got the last two Marlins-Cubs game today, and one of the two I want to talk about a bit. That game is Game 6, the one loser Cub fans blamed on one of their own, instead of their team. First, here are the stats:

Florida 8 Cubs 3
OBP - FL .341, Chi .343
SLG - FL .333, Chi .333
OPS - FL .674, Chi .676
BAP - FL .659, Chi .472
EBs - FL 10, Chi 4
BA - FL .250, Chi .303
SecA - FL .194, Chi .091
BA+SecA - FL .444, Chi .394

Only BAP, BA+SecA, and Secondary Average analyze this game correctly. There's nothing especially noteworthy about that, until you look at the final score. The Marlins won by FIVE runs! If OBP and Slugging are so important, how can they not analyze a game correctly in which there is such a wide gap in runs scored?

This brings me back to one of my main gripes with the Stat Community. Everyone tries to take certain stats and determine how important they are over the course of a season, but a season is just a large collection of games. If a stat doesn't prove to be the most useful for measuring the winners of individual games, then how important is the stat at all? Now, I understand that no stat can get every game correctly, but BAP is establishing that there are gaps in what OBP and Slugging measure. Take for instance, the seasonal stats for the Royal and Twins:

OBP - KC .336, Min .341
SLG - KC .427, Min .431
Runs - KC 836, Min 801

Backers of those two stats will tell you there is some margin for error, that no percentage can predict a run total exactly. Even BAP is like that. But the Royals were able to find one more run for every 4.63 games of the season, even while getting on base less often, and hitting for less power. Would BAP make up all of the difference? Unlikely, but who knows? I would be willing to bet that it at least would close the gap quite a bit, and yeah, maybe the Royals would have a higher BAP score then the Twins.

Let's get back to the Cubs-Marlins game. The Marlins had 10 EBs in that game, which is a high total but not unreasonable for what the Marlins had put up so far in the playoffs, but check out what happened, BAP-style, in that now infamous top of the eighth:

FLORIDA 8TH:
M Mordecai flied out to left. (0 EBs)
J Pierre doubled to left. (0 EBs)
L Castillo walked, J Pierre to third on wild pitch by M Prior. (1 EB)
I Rodriguez singled to left, J Pierre scored, L Castillo to second. (0 EBs)
M Cabrera safe at first on error by shortstop A Gonzalez, L Castillo to third, I Rodriguez to second. (3 EBs)
D Lee doubled to left, L Castillo and I Rodriguez scored, M Cabrera to third. (0 EBs)
K Farnsworth relieved M Prior.
M Lowell intentionally walked. (0 EBs)
J Conine hit sacrifice fly to right, M Cabrera scored, D Lee to third, M Lowell to second. (3 EBs)
T Hollandsworth hit for C Fox.
T Hollandsworth intentionally walked. (0 EBs)
M Mordecai doubled to deep left center, D Lee, M Lowell and T Hollandsworth scored. (1 EB)
M Remlinger relieved K Farnsworth.
J Pierre singled to right, M Mordecai scored. (1 EB)
L Castillo popped out to shallow right.
(8 Runs, 5 Hits, 1 Error) FLORIDA 8, CHICAGO CUBS 3,

There are 9 EBs in this half-inning, 8 total bases, and three walks. You tell me which stat might be the most important. It all comes down to this:

YOU CAN'T SCORE 8 RUNS ON JUST 8 TOTAL BASES AND 3 WALKS!

Something else is going on there, folks. Welcome to the wonderful world of BAP.

Here's Game 7.

Florida 9 Chicago 6
OBP - FL .381, Chi .229
SLG - FL .526, Chi .485
OPS - FL .907, Chi .714
BAP - FL .643, Chi .571
EBs - FL 3, Chi 2
BA - FL .316, Chi .182
SecA - FL .342, Chi .364
BA+SecA - FL .658, Chi .546

Every stat gets it right.

The Stat Playoff Standings

BAP 29-3
BA+SecA 28-4
SLG 27-4-1
OBP 26-6
OPS 26-6
BA 26-6
SecA 22-10

Unless there's a collapse of Cubsian proportions, BAP stands to win. The only real challenger is BA+SecA, another ES creation (I think) that I'll talk more about at a later date. And how about Batting Average? Maybe it's not so overrated after all.

BAP For Beginners

Dave's Email

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