Wednesday, October 08, 2003

To BAP Or Not To BAP

I was going to do the BAP preview for Sox-Yankees, but decided it would be largely irrelevant. There were many similarities between the division series of the Marlins and Cubs, but that just doesn't exist in the AL league. The Yankees had home field but the Sox didn't. The Sox played their road games in a pitcher's park but the Yankees didn't. The Yankees cruised, while the Sox battled to the very last pitch of the very last game.

As for regular analysis, I find myself approaching the series like the Red Sox fan that I am, rather than the impartial observer I try to be, or the ruthless gambler my Dad accuses me of being. I look at all of it and ask myself, "So how can the Sox win this thing?" Well, Pedro has to be a Hall of Famer, Lowe has to be an all-star, the offense has to hit like the 1927 Yankees (who's slugging record they amazingly broke), and Mariano Rivera has to be over the hill.

It's all possible of course, but that's a lot of ifs. So my prediction is this, Yankees in six, but this is no doom and gloom prognostication. The Sox can take this thing if the Yankees aren't careful. New York is minus 200, the Sox plus 170. I wouldn't put money on it either way.


I'm still going to do BAP scores for all of the AL games, but tonight I'm going to get the NL up to date. Here is last night's game, and the rest of the NLDS:

Marlins 9 Cubs 8
OBP - FL .360, Chi .289
SLG - FL .711, Chi .651
OPS - FL 1.071, Chi .940
BAP - FL .920, Chi .696
EBs - FL 10, Chi 2
BA - FL .311, Chi .256
SecA - FL .511, Chi .442
BA+SecA - FL .822, Chi .698

More big offensive numbers from the Marlins. Every stat gets it right.


Braves 6 Cubs 4
OBP - Atl .422, Chi .359
SLG - Atl .474, Chi .543
OPS - Atl .896, Chi .902
BAP - Atl .644, Chi .590
EBs - Atl 4, Chi 0
BA - Atl .316, Chi .286
SecA - Atl .368, Chi .371
BA+SecA - Atl .684, Chi .657

Slugging, OPS, and Secondary Average gets it wrong.


Cubs 5 Braves 1
OBP - Chi .278, Atl .212
SLG - Chi .514, Atl .226
OPS - Chi .792, Atl .438
BAP - Chi .600, Atl .303
EBs - Chi 2 , Atl 1
BA - Chi .257, Atl .161
SecA - Chi .257, Atl .129
BA+SecA - Chi .514, Atl .390

A dominating performance by the Cubs in game 5.


Marlins 7 Giants 6
OBP - SF .342, FL .450
SLG - SF .375, FL .529
OPS - SF .717, FL .979
BAP - SF .553, FL .951
EBs - SF 5, FL 15
BA - SF .281, FL .353
SecA - SF .188. FL .353
BA+SecA - SF .469, FL .706

Surprisingly, a very close game that every stat gets right.

The Standings:

BAP 13-1
OBP 12-2
BA 12-2
BA+SecA 12-2
SLG 11-3
OPS 11-3
SecA 8-6

BAP maintains it's lead, and BA continues to surprise.

BAP For Beginners

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