Wednesday, July 30, 2003

BAP, BAP, BAP, BAP

Talk about on fire. Would you believe that someone has started a thread entitled "The Next Voros McCracken?" If you've found this site through that thread, make sure to check out the "BAP for Beginners" link over on the right. For those regular readers who don't know who Voros McCracken is, I can sum it up best by saying he was a guy living with his parents who wrote a few articles about statistical trends he'd discovered and got a job out of it - with the RED SOX!

PICK UP THE PHONE THEO!

Anyway, the link for the thread is The Next Voros McCracken?



There's a ton of BAP stuff today (including a new formula!) but there's a couple of other things I want to cover first.

While I have received some emails of support in my beef with Sports Illustrated, I so far only have one entrant in the RIP SI contest. See details below.

Teams being tracked by the BAP Research Project Team - Boston, KC, Cleveland, Baltimore, the White Sox, and maybe Anaheim. All others are still available. Email me for details.

Paul DePodesta Medal of Honor Winners -

Mike Lieberthal of the Philadelphia Phillies - 2 for 2 with a walk. Doesn't seem like much until you realize that there were only 13 baserunners the whole game.

Marcus Giles of the Atlanta Braves - 5 for 5.

Desi Relaford of KC - 3 for 3 with a walk.

Teams with PDMOH are now 13-2, and are scoring 7.2 runs per game.

BAP WARNING - the rest of today's entry is going to be loaded with stats and definitions. If you are not a Stat Freak, stay away, unless your job is boring you to tears.

Last night's results - I always type this wrong the first time and get "resluts", and the fifth grader in me always giggles.

Tampa Bay 9 Toronto 8

OBP - TB .372, Tor .372
SLG - TB .487, Tor .541
BAP - TB .767, Tor .721

A big score for BAP. The only one to get it right.


St. Louis 2 Montreal 1

OBP - Stl .182, Mon .133
SLG - Stl .290, Mon .200
BAP - Stl .394, Mon .226

All three percentages analyze the info correctly.


San Diego 8 Pittsburgh 7

OBP - SD .400, Pit .372
SLG - SD .514, Pit .324
BAP - SD .683, Pit .628

All three get it right.


Florida 2 Arizona 1

OBP - Ari .212, Flo .324
SLG - Ari .233, Flo .303
BAP - Ari .273, Flo .441

All three get it right.

BAP OBP SLG
BOS 0.875 0.438 0.780
TEX 0.744 0.349 0.351

Boston 14 Texas 7 A preview of the Patriots-Cowboys football game this fall, brought to us by Tim of Musings From RSN



OBP - Bos .438, Tex .349
SLG - Bos .780, Tex .351
BAP - Bos .874, Tex .744

All three get it right.

BAP's record now stands at 35-1.

OK, those of you who are still here, the true stat junkies, huddle up.

Below are formulas for measuring BAP for individual players. I've been mulling this over from the start, and I put it all together last night and this morning. You will also be able to find this information from now on in BAP For Beginners.

32-86-24 ...Hut!

Oh no! Two football references! Can you tell training camp has opened?

Alright, I'll shut up. Here we go.

BAP For Individual Players

In order to come up with a BAP score for individual players, we need to figure out just who should get credit for bases gained in all of the acts that gain Extra Bases. Let's go through those one by one:

Sacrifices - Credit for the Extra Base will go to the hitter. If it is a squeeze play, credit will be divided evenly between the batter and the runner.

Sacrifice Flies - If a runner goes from first to second or second to third, he will get credit for it. If the SF scores a run, credit will be divided evenly between the runner and the batter.

Fielder's Choice - Any base gained during a fielder's choice will go the runner who has advanced the base.

Double Plays - The lost base will be charged to the hitter.

Stolen Bases - Credit goes to the runner.

Fielder's Indifference - Credit goes to the runner.

Wild Pitches - Team Base. No player gets credit for the first base. The runner wil be charged with a lost base if he is thrown out.

Passed Balls - Same as Wild Pitches

Errors - Same as Wild Pitches

Base Running - The runner will get credit for any bases beyond the number of bases of the hit that has caused him to run. Example - 2 bases on a single is 1 EB.

There is one inherent problem in BAP for individual players. A player's opportunities to advance on the bases are directly related to the performance of players hitting around him. It might be better to get a look at a player's base running ability independent of his hiiting ability, in which case we could use a formula such as this:

(# of times a player advances from first to third on a single) + (# of times a player advances from second to home on a single) + (# of times a player advances from first to home on a double) + ( # of times a player scores from third on an out in play that is not a double play) + (all other Extra Bases) - (base running outs) divided by Opportunities, where Opportunities = (# of times a player is on first when a single is hit, and no other baserunner is blocking him) + (# of times a player is on second when a single is hit) + (# of times a player is on first when a double is hit) + ( # of times a player is on third and there is an out in play, except for double plays) + (all base running outs).

There are ways to gain Extra Bases in this formula that are outside of the Opportunities listed, such as stealing bases. In those cases, because they are either very rare or because they are already independent of what the player's teammates are doing, we consider those to be bonus opportunities that the player has created for himself, and the player is only charged for them if he is thrown out.

Comments or Counseling for Dave

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