Monday, August 25, 2003

AL All-Stars and MVP, with a Twist

Went back to thinking about what runners do on bases after they've gotten hits, or if they haven't gotten hits, and came across this at ESPN:

"Secondary Average (A way to look at a player's extra bases gained, independent of Batting Average)
(TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB"

Now even though I have the BAP thing, I've been the first to admit that I'm no stats maven, just a stats fan. I've heard of secondary average, but never used it for anything. I know about Runs Created, but couldn't explain it to you. Anyway, I look at this number and think that it's an interesting way of looking at things, although I'm not sure why you don't divide by plate appearances. But what really catches my eye is the phrase "independent of batting average".

Talk about going the other way. Completely ignoring singles! I love it. My question is this: What would happen if we just added Batting Average to it? I know. It's sloppy. I've teed off against OPS for that very reason - there's no mathematical reason to add them. But OPS has the added problem of repeating skills between OBP and SLG. Adding SecA and BA together at least adds two pretty exclusive stats, so shouldn't this be better than OPS? Let's see and find out!

Here are the current AL All-Stars (NL tomorrow) for Seconday Average + Batting Average

1B Jason Giambi
2B Bret Boone
3B Bill Mueller
LF Manny
CF Carlos Beltran
RF Trot Nixon
C Jorge Posada

Did the OPS team, and the only differences are Delgado over Giambi, and Bradley over Beltran.

It's funny how once you get past the all-star game, everyone stops talking about all-star teams. But look how much this team is different than the one most people would have picked just a month ago, and it's not because SecA + BA doesn't work. Giambi is right there with Carlos Delgado. Beltran has caught Vernon Wells(not counting injuries). Mueller and Nixon are clearly having outstanding years, and not just great springs. Folks like Melvin Mora have fallen by the way side.

Here are the top 8 AL leaders in SecA +BA (I chose eight because I choose eight all-stars):

1. Giambi .808
2. Delgado .793
3. ARod .767
4. Manny .759
5. Frank Thomas .734
6. Carlos Beltran .729 and Trot Nixon .729
8. Jorge Posada .707

Edgar Martinez came close, at .702, as did Milton Bradley at .691.

Well, I've gone this far. How about some more awards?

First Non-Pitcher You Would Take in a Fantasy Draft (what statheads want the MVP to be) - ARod, easily.

Best Non-Pitcher on a Team in a Pennant Race (What the MVP actually is) - This one is tougher, and I actually like this award once you name it right. For me, it should be someone who is the all-star at their position, and one of the top players in the league, along with playing on a contender. This leaves us with Giambi, Mueller, Manny, Beltran, Nixon, and Posada. Mueller and Beltran haven't played the whole year. Nixon can't hit lefties. Out of the other three, only one plays a key defensive position.

I did this earlier in the year, with different numbers, and came out with the same thing, yet I never hear anyone else mention it. Jorge Posada for MVP!

I'll have BAP scores tomorrow. Promise.

Dave's Email


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