Tuesday, June 10, 2003

The Great Series Prediction Contest

OK, here we go. You have 1,000 imaginary dollars to bet, and you have to bet on at least 1oo dollars on three of the five series. Just as a reminder to people, if a team is -150, that means you have to bet 150 to win 100. If a team is +130, then you have to bet 100 to win 130. The winner gets a choice of a ten-foot marble statue of their likeness built in their hometown, or my undying respect.

My choice, of course.

Below is a brief descripton of necessary info for each series. You can either email me your picks, or leave it on whatever board you found it at.

The info I'll give for each series will include OBP and SLG for each team, bullpen rating taken from baseballprospectus.com, home and road records as appropriate, starting pitchers, and my own comments and picks. The tough part I think is comparing OBP and SLG in interleague games, where one team has had the DH, and the other hasn't.

St. Louis at Boston
StL +160 Bos -200

StL 11-16 Boston 18-9
OBP StL .356 Bos .357
SLG STL ..470 Bos .486
Bullpen edge - St L

Pitching Matchup
Williams at Kim
Tomko at Pedro
Stephenson at Wakefield

If Williams doesn't win the opener, then this one is over. He might win it , of course, and who knows how Pedro will come out in his first start, or maybe even be a late scratch. At that price I like the Cards.

Houston at Yankees
Hous +160 NY -200

Hous 14-15 NY 13-15
OBP Hous .341 NY .354
SLG Hous ..427 NY .463
Bullpen Edge - Hous

Pitching Matchups
Miller at Mussina
Oswalt at Contreras
Robertson at Wells

The Yankees have been lousy at home. I'd make them prove they're worthy of the price, and take the Astros.

San Francisco at the White Sox
SF -110 Chi -110

SF 18-10 Chi 16-12
OBP SF .349 Chi .332
SLG SF .433 Chi .413
Bullpen Edge - even

Pitching Matchups
Williams at Garland
Foppert at Buerhle
Rueter at Colon

The White Sox still have a lot to prove. I like the Giants.

Atlanta at Oakland
Atl +120 Oak -150

Atl 18-10 Oak 19-8
OBP Atl .354 Oak .326
SLG Atl ..499 Oak .410
Bullpen edge - Oakland

Pitching Matchups
Maddux at Hudson
Ramirez at Lilly
Reynolds at Zito

The Braves are a lot better hitting team than Oakland. Braves.

Montreal at Seattle
Mont +170 Sea -220

Mont 14-15 Sea 17-11
OBP Mont .331 Sea .358
SLG Mont ..400 Sea .449
Bullpen Edge - Seattle

Pitching Matchups
Vazquez at Meche
Hernandez at Pineiro
Vargas at Franklin

We're a big believer in the Mariners. We'd pay the price at -220.


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