Sunday, November 21, 2004

Things Have Changed

People are crazy and times are strange
I'm locked in tight
I'm out of range
I used to care but
Things Have Changed
- Bob Dylan

I may not be quitting this site, but they're sending me a check over at my other gig, Crazy From The Heat. So if you don't see me here for awhile, go over there, because I'm writing like a madman, including the ECF stuff. And hey, email me and say hello.

Monday, November 15, 2004

College Football Weekend Update

What a difference a week makes! After saying last week that Michigan and BC were on the outside looking in, both had huge reversals of fortune. But before we get to that, here's the current standings:

Unscathed Teams Who Have Beaten a Top Ten Team (3)
Auburn**, Oklahoma*, USC*

All Other Unscathed Teams (1)

Teams With Half-Acceptable Losses (1)
Boise St

Teams With 1 Acceptable Loss (2)
Cal, Louisville

Teams That Have To Be Perfect The Rest Of The Way (3)
BC*, FSU, Michigan

Boston College now has their victory over a top ten team, and the inside track to a BCS bowl game. If they can beat Temple, Syracuse, and their bowl opponent ( predicts Miami), they will finish the season with only 1.5 Acceptable Losses and a share of the ECF Championship. Michigan, meanwhile, was the benficiary of the massive Wisconsin collapse, and now has the inside track on a BCS bowl bid, which will give them their necessary Top Ten opponent.

Here's's bowl projections involving ECF teams:

Auburn vs USC
Michigan vs Cal
BC vs Miami
Oklahoma vs Utah
Louisville vs New Mexico
FSU vs West Virginia
Boise St vs Georgia Tech

Louisville, Boise St, and now FSU appear to be squeezed out of an appearance against a Top Ten team, which would eliminate them from ECF competition. However, all of the over games are live, with three automatically producing champions, and another game possibly producing one if BC beats old Big East nemesis Miami. Me thinks there's still an upset or two to come though, so we'll see if we even tie the 2002 record of three champions.

Sunday, November 07, 2004

College Football Weekend Update

Only Miami is eliminated this week, and there is no change in status for everyone else. Here's the current standings:

Unscathed Teams That Have Beaten a Top Ten Team (4)
Auburn*, Oklahoma*, USC*, Wisconsin*

All Other Unscathed Teams (2)
Boise St, Utah

Teams With Half-Acceptable Losses (0)

Teams With 1 Acceptable Loss (2)
Cal, Louisville

Teams That Have To Be Perfect The Rest Of The Way (4)
BC, FSU, Michigan, WV

Unlike last year, when teams were falling left and right, we are looking at a scenario where many teams are going to be potential champions heading into their bowl game. BC and West Virginia is this weekend (which should finally spell the end for the Eagles), and that's the last time any of these teams play each other until December, or January. Here are current bowl projections for these teams, courtesy of College Football News.

Orange - Oklahoma vs USC
Rose - Wisconsin vs California
Sugar - Auburn vs Virginia
Fiesta - West Virginia vs Utah
MPC - Boise St vs. Clemson
Insight - Boston College vs UCLA
Peach - Florida State vs LSU
Liberty - Louisville vs BYU
Capital One - Michigan vs Tennessee

BC will probably be gone. FSU will probably have to make it to the Sugar to survive. Louisville, Boise St, and amazingly, Michigan, look to be elimnated by the Top Ten Rule, which states a team must beat someone in the Top Ten of any poll during the course of the season. But that still leaves us with potentially four champions, a new record. Included in those chances is Utah, who seem headed for a bowl game with what will be a Top Ten West Virginia team, and a chance at the first ECF championship for a small conference.

Saturday, November 06, 2004

Feeling The Heat

Here's the deal. All of the Miami Heat stuff I'm writing is at Crazy From The Heat, and I've agreed not to print that stuff on here, unless its something that I feel really strongly about. So go over there, if you've made it this far. College Football news will be here shortly.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Presidential Prediction

Staying away from politics (although long time readers of ES probably know where I stand), a horse race is still a horse race. I got 3-2 odds on Kerry a couple of months ago, and I think he looks real good tonight. Here's my rational,which surprisingly, I haven't seen come up on any of the endless stupid talk shows that I occasionally watch.

When the incumbent is well-thought of, they win in a landslide. It seems like there is no way Bush will succeed to this extent, ergo, he will lose.

The evidence?

Clinton routes 2nd time
Bush Sr. loses
Reagan clobbers Mondale
Carter loses
Ford loses
Nixon destroys McGovern
Johnson quits

By the way, in Palm Beach County, I waited two hours to vote.

Monday, November 01, 2004

College Football Championship Update

First, we'll do the standings, then we'll show just how weird the standings are.

Unscathed Teams Who Have Beaten a Top Ten Team (4)
Auburn*, Oklahoma*, USC*, Wisconsin*

All Other Unscathed Teams (2)
Boise St, Utah

Teams With Half-Acceptable Losses (0)

Teams With 1 Acceptable Loss (2)
Cal, Louisville

Teams That Have To Be Perfect The Rest Of The Way (5)
BC, FSU, Miami*, Michigan, WV

So what's so strange about the 13 teams? Just this - outside of the BC/West Virginia matchup November 13th, none of these teams play each other again until the bowls. The reason for this is that there is almost complete parity in regards to the conferences of the contenders. Here's the conference breakdown, and the results of teams that have already played.

ACC - FSU and Miami. Miami won in OT at home, a Half-Acceptable Loss for both.

Big East - 2 teams. BC and West Virginia we already discussed. The loser is done for the year.

Big 10 - 2 teams. Michigan and Wisconsin don't play each other this year.

Big 12 - Oklahoma.

Conference USA - Louisville. They need a top ten matchup in their bowl game, and they can steal a share of the ECF. Nearly got that big win at Miami.

Mountain West - Utah. They have the same scenario as Louisville, except in their case its more likely.

Pac 10 - Cal and USC. Cal lost a close one at USC, an Acceptable Loss.

SEC - Just Auburn.

WAC - Just Boise St.

So on the one hand, no one is that dominant, and there will still be a lot of great conference battles ahead of us. On the other hand, if there are not many upsets, we're looking at multiple champions, just like two years ago.